The real China threat

By ROBERT J. SAMUELSON
The Washington Post
Obsessed with rankings, Americans are bound to see the Beijing Olympics as a metaphor for a larger and

more troubling question. Will China overtake the United States as the world’s biggest economy? Well, stop worrying. It almost certainly will. China’s economy is now only a fourth the size of the $14 trillion U.S. economy, but given plausible growth rates in both countries, China’s output will exceed America’s in the 2020s, projects Goldman Sachs. But this is the wrong worry. By itself, a richer China does not make America poorer. Indeed, because there are so many more Chinese than Americans, average Chinese living standards may lag behind ours indefinitely. By Goldman’s projections, average American incomes will still be twice Chinese incomes in 2050....